Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Natural Gas Futures and ETF

An over supply has absolutely no relation to the pricing or value of a commodity.

Last year Exxon Mobil paid about 41 $ Billions for XTO Energy for its technology and access to the resources. People at Exxon Mobil are smarter than any of the industry and their move has a deep meaning which market people may not understand.
Natural Gas is a very good alternative for the imported Crude oil and sooner or later, perhaps soon during 2010 there would be some breakthrough in its new usage and there may be some news which will trigger its declining prices and stop the leak in the price, which started its steep fall in the historical month of July 2008, when Crude Oil futures began their decline.
Crude oil made a fairly good move in 2009 but the Natural Gas did not follow it.
Crude oil made over 100% move during second quarter of 2009 but the Natural Gas remained weak and it has only declined in price gradually.

I see a greater usage of Natural Gas in industries, homes and even motor vehicles. There could be some new developments in its price range soon.
Based on my studies I see that

UNG : ETF Natural Gas as anyone can see has been on decline since the last market crash of Fall 2008 from 65s to literally 6.90s.
It appears to be literally a dead commodity as the futures or ETF show each day a new decline.

In my projection I find that Natural Gas may begin some minor move from early April and then picking up from mid April and early May peaking by Mid May for an intermediate short trend. This potential up move may give NG futures and UNG and other related stocks a new life in this apparently depressed commodity.


astralguide said...

I would be posting a detailed analysis of Natural Gas at http://seekingalpha.com shortly.

astralguide said...

Well Natural Gas made a massive move as per our post. However nobody believes in this analysis even though many so called analysts copied our projection.
Que interesante!!

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