Tuesday, March 23, 2010

The hidden forces of Markets and short term trading losses

Please read this if you are a very short term and micro trading "Human" market operator.

If you are a regular market watcher and analyze it by assessing the economic indicators, volumes of trades and overall Economy or read it technically looking at turns, twists, support, resistance or decipher the repeating patterns, and you still can not translate the scene, on shorter term, it is because there are hidden forces that drive markets having variety of interests. It is much more difficult to know the micro trends than macro trends because of speed, sudden news, time bending events etc. Believe or not it is easier to foresee and see the larger picture than the micro moves that can take away your portfolio's portions slowly and many times suddenly. The results can be worse if you trade options and futures.

What are these hidden forces many people talk about.
The reality of the market remains as real as the time on your clock. More than 80% of traders are not really making any real money and if they do make some gains they are depleted with quicker speed than they were achieved. Only very long term traders or investors on the right side remain in the game for a longer time. Majority of short term traders, (more so those who do options and futures), are thrown out of market as if they were foreign objects on a busy freeway.

This is a reality which most people do not want to accept and this living in denial only ends when the portfolio is reduced to a fraction.

There are two factors :

Programmed Trading : There are hundreds or thousands of large size computer clusters that are working overspeed churning numbers that analyze the volumes, technicals and fundamentals interpreted into numerical results and the results are not even necessarily seen by real time human beings. This very large size computing power actually is nothing but an artificial intelligence, that is also known as robotics that take decisions for their masters and they decide when to get into a particular asset and when to get out.

This may obviously be factored on very short term technicals.
Despite that most managers working on micro levels notice that their plans or even basic perception of market trend gets clouded. The sudden spikes can put many traders and managers out of their stops or those with mental stops see their gains lose quickly.
The sudden actions of multiple computers run by about 4 to 5 dozen very large institutions bring havoc to the markets on short term and many many traders get ruined or get out of place.
Computing intelligence buys large chunks of a currency or index when another set of certain currency or index is up and vice versa. Few times some sectors assets are sold off instantly when certain factors are translated as imminent "danger". This is so fast, nimble and quick that even the smart traders sitting on edges can not handle and they are thrown out of markets.

Institutionals : There are two kind of institutional interests. Those who are based in the United States and are represented by private and many times disguised interests. There are others who are based in Non-USA markets but they have interests with special intent.

There are two type of manipulations done on very large scales that can turn a market up or down quickly. The first kind are simply Casino operator like underwriters and grabbers of all possible gains who use all possible tactics to book the maximum which is like extracting juice of any recently ripen fruit and the rest of the pulp is thrown to markets, which smarter traders try to exploit.

The rest what is remaining is like a fresh dry bone which is thrown to common traders who chew on it for some time, excited over the technical indicators and charming, alarming or "interesting" news. All this is a facade, a show, a staged dramatics that is done each day to make some "very large" interests richer. 30 to 40% of market actions is generated by this group. Much of the news is also fabricated, fake and manipulated.

The other type of interest that are based in foreign shores have deep seated secret interests and they work in slow motion but intensify at particular points, to culminate the action.
These interests jack up or drop a market by manipulation a large number of futures, indices and stocks in a very systematic way which common market watchers can not even remotely fathom. These interests can take a few "commodities" or currencies up and down as per their interest is. Over 30 percent to at times 70% of the market action is done by these secretive, hidden interests who manipulate the markets to maintain their own very large vested interests.
Many currencies, commodities and stocks are moved by these people in a perfect harmonious fashion like an orchestra. It is hard to detect these actions unless you are an insider.

Considering all this any fundamental analysis and even technical analysis can fail and you will be thrown out of the markets because the usual patterns fail.
This may sound fantasy or conspiracy theory to some but most professionals know this reality and they are fully aware of its modus.

The type of analysis I have been developing does take into consideration these hidden and occult factors. Now the question arises, if astral movements impact and influence the above secretive portion of the real markets? Yes it does but it is not easily detected by the common astronomical/extra-terrestrial aspects that are formed. That is why you will notice that people relying on positive aspects find that the market is behaving negative and vice versa. The polarity can change and it does change constantly but without prior information.
The Plutonian and Martian influence is so devilish or rather sudden and extreme that people are blinded by self interests, greed and extreme obssession and this can imbalance the NATURAL energy flow of the markets and our lives. The radical, the extreme and strange produces surprises.

If you want to remain in the markets, do not be fooled by technical charts Only, or fundamental factors only or simply the traditional macro-economic news and indicators. All this is helpful only about 50 % of the times.

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