Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Currency markets prospectus for the week

CHINA : There may be some movement on the Chinese Currency index. Renminbi US Dollar index based ETN is showing some movement and it may be bullish over next few days.

Indian Rs. : Indian currency Rupee is bullish this week and may remain so for coming week.

Russia : Russian Ruble may make a good move in next few days.

Australia : Australian Dollar Futures AD or ETF FXA continues to be bullish on intermediate period of next few weeks even though it may be down today.

Canada : Canadian Dollar Futures CD or etf FXC is pretty bullish for the day and for the coming week.

Swiss Franc : Swiss Frank like Euro still down but it may do some up move over next 2 weeks. Futures today had a good 125 pips move.

Europe : The common European Currency EURO appears very bullish and may continue to be bullish next week. Eur move may only be limited to little more than a week.

USD : US Currency may remain down for this week and perhaps coming week. Second week April could lift it up.

BRAZIL : The brazilian Real is surely for a good up move.

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Natural Gas Futures and ETF

An over supply has absolutely no relation to the pricing or value of a commodity.

Last year Exxon Mobil paid about 41 $ Billions for XTO Energy for its technology and access to the resources. People at Exxon Mobil are smarter than any of the industry and their move has a deep meaning which market people may not understand.
Natural Gas is a very good alternative for the imported Crude oil and sooner or later, perhaps soon during 2010 there would be some breakthrough in its new usage and there may be some news which will trigger its declining prices and stop the leak in the price, which started its steep fall in the historical month of July 2008, when Crude Oil futures began their decline.
Crude oil made a fairly good move in 2009 but the Natural Gas did not follow it.
Crude oil made over 100% move during second quarter of 2009 but the Natural Gas remained weak and it has only declined in price gradually.

I see a greater usage of Natural Gas in industries, homes and even motor vehicles. There could be some new developments in its price range soon.
Based on my studies I see that

UNG : ETF Natural Gas as anyone can see has been on decline since the last market crash of Fall 2008 from 65s to literally 6.90s.
It appears to be literally a dead commodity as the futures or ETF show each day a new decline.

In my projection I find that Natural Gas may begin some minor move from early April and then picking up from mid April and early May peaking by Mid May for an intermediate short trend. This potential up move may give NG futures and UNG and other related stocks a new life in this apparently depressed commodity.

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